Editorial commentary from the floor.
The narrator on Mr. Market's moods, day by day. One business at a time.
Introducing The Cohorts.
Every portfolio Mr. Market would have picked, on the day it was picked — and what it's done since. The archive grows each quarter — see the live count and roster on the Cohorts page.
On the depressed mood today.
On a day when Mr. Market was offering a meaningful chunk of the universe below intrinsic value. The editors on what that does, and does not, mean. Dated snapshot — see the dispatch and the live Tape for current numbers.
On Mastercard, today.
Mastercard is the smaller of the two great payment-network toll booths. The protocol treats it almost identically to Visa, with one revealing difference.
Introducing The Five.
A simple test of the protocol — buy the five most-undervalued names every year, hold them, repeat. We've run the numbers back five years. The results are on the page.
On JPMorgan, today.
Banks do not fit the standard Owner Earnings DCF. So we built them their own model — and JPMorgan, on the new one, comes out priced richly.
On Nvidia, today.
Nvidia is the single business that every other technology business presently depends on. Mr. Market knows. The protocol is, accordingly, sceptical.
Why we paywall the math.
The protocol is free. The publication is not. A short note from the editors on the difference, and what your subscription actually pays for.
On Visa, today.
Visa is the toll booth between every credit-card swipe and the merchant on the other end. Mr. Market is asking $326. We think the business is worth materially more.
On Microsoft, today.
Microsoft is the rare technology business that compounded for forty years without being disrupted. Mr. Market wants $422 for it. Our protocol comes back higher.
On Costco, today.
Costco is the rare business whose intrinsic value is calculable from a single membership renewal rate. Mr. Market knows this — and asks accordingly.
The shape of a mood.
On any given Tuesday, Mr. Market is asking the wrong price for nine stocks out of ten. The art is recognising which way the mood is bent today.
On Apple, today.
Mr. Market is asking $293 for Apple. Our protocol comes back at $493 — and that is precisely why we layer a sector risk premium on top of the long Treasury.
On Coca-Cola, today.
Mr. Market is asking $78 for a business that is worth, by our reckoning, closer to $89. He is not yet manic, but he is no longer depressed.